Yunus's Predicament and the ‘Obama Phenomenon’ in Bangladesh
Online cheer for Yunus govt’s continuation risks an Obama Phenomenon: charisma fuels high hopes, but without elections, stability, and real gains, optimism may quickly turn into disillusionment.
সম্প্রতি ড. মুহাম্মদ ইউনূসের অন্তর্বর্তীকালীন সরকারের মেয়াদকাল বাড়ানোর দাবি সামাজিক যোগাযোগ মাধ্যমে বিতর্কের সৃষ্টি করে। আলোচনার কেন্দ্রবিন্দুতে ছিল- এর ফলাফল কেমন হতে পারে? লেখক দাবি করছেন, নির্বাচনবিহীন ইউনূস সরকারের স্থায়িত্ব বাড়ানো হলে দেশে "ওবামা ফেনোমেনন"-এর ঝুঁকি তৈরি হবে। ওবামার ক্যারিসম্যাটিক নেতৃত্বে গড়ে ওঠা উচ্চাশা পরবর্তীতে অপূর্ণ প্রত্যাশার কারনে গণ হতাশার জন্ম দেয়। ইউনূসের ক্ষেত্রেও বাংলাদেশের মানুষের আশাবাদ ভেঙে পড়তে পারে, যা দেশকেও কোনো অস্থিতিশীলতার দিকে নিয়ে যেতে পারে।
In recent months, social media platforms, notably Facebook, have seen vigorous debates about the continuation of Muhammad Yunus's interim government for additional years. While these calls reflect widespread optimism, they also invite careful analysis. Political observers caution that prolonging Yunus's administration for even another year without elections risks producing an Obama Phenomenon, creating high hopes built on charisma and promise that could later collapse into disillusionment.
Bangladesh’s recent history, marked by the 5th August Revolution and seventeen years of heavy-handed Awami League rule, underscores how easily public trust can sour and transform into public frustration when expectations go unmet. Today’s digital cheerleading for Yunus rests on a knife’s edge: without concrete achievements, online applause may swiftly turn to sharp criticism.
The Obama Phenomenon originates from the experiences of former U.S. President Barack Obama, who many view as an unsuccessful leader. Obama was neither distinctly successful nor explicitly unsuccessful; instead, he was conventional in his presidential role. However, his presidency was marked by exceptionally high public expectations due to his charisma and visionary promises.
President Obama’s approval ratings soared above 68% in 2009 but steadily declined as his lofty campaign expectations met harsh political realities such as legislative gridlock, slow economic recovery, and the limits of political compromise. Many voters had anticipated rapid, sweeping reforms, only to find bipartisan gridlock and the painstaking pace of job growth and deficit reduction frustrating by his second term, Obama also fell victim to the so-called “second-term curse,” a historical pattern in which presidents face tougher headwinds and diminished public confidence after their initial four years. These realities perhaps better explain why a leader once celebrated for his inspirational style saw his popularity wane as running a government is believed to be more complex than campaigning and being elected.
Besides shortcomings, Obama had significant accomplishments. However, his widespread popularity declined indeed by the public perception of unmet expectations. Obama naturally projected charisma, stirring optimism and hope among the populace. When reality did not match these elevated expectations, perceptions skewed negatively. Hence, Obama’s case highlights a critical lesson for broader democratic practice: charisma can inspire enthusiasm and engagement, but without concrete achievements and realistic policy delivery, public trust erodes. Democratic stability requires balancing inspiration with results.
The history of Bangladesh offers its own examples of charismatic leadership. Major Ziaur Rahman rose to prominence as a liberation war hero and later engaged deeply with ordinary citizens. Many believe he became “the pulse of the people” or a symbol of national unity and hope, following Sepoy-Janata Revolution (Soldiers-Mass Uprising) of November the 7th, 1975.
Indeed, Major Zia gained popularity through his “politics of hope,” especially by touring the countryside to deliver stirring speeches and championing a 19-point program on self-reliance, rural development, and decentralization. Initiatives like the Gram Sarkar [village councils] and food-for-work projects underscored his commitment to uplifting the rural poor. By blending wartime heroism, motivational oratory, and visible development efforts, Ziaur Rahman embodied the archetype of a charismatic leader who bridged the gulf between military authority and grassroots aspirations, at least until the complexities of governance and questions over institutional checks began to temper that early fervor.
Muhammad Yunus similarly embodies considerable charisma, which has undoubtedly garnered him substantial pledges of international support and investment. Nonetheless, these assurances may not come true unless Bangladesh gets an elected government. Yunus’s special assistant and economist, Anis Chowdhury, previously highlighted this issue succinctly, stating in an interview, "Why would investments come to a government whose very name indicates it is interim?" Without the legitimacy and stability of an elected administration, international financial assurances remain tentative.
From the perspective of international trade law and global economic practice, investors and trading partners typically prefer stable, elected governments, which provide assurances of policy continuity, legal predictability, and adherence to international obligations. Interim governments, seen as temporary and lacking clear long-term mandates, often face challenges in establishing credible commitments and securing enforceable agreements, significantly hampering long-term foreign investments and economic engagements.
Moreover, concerns have been raised regarding the potential preferential treatment in governmental appointments, exemplified by the case of Ashiq Chowdhury. Despite hundreds of graduates from Dhaka University's Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Chowdhury, perceived by some as mediocre compared to his peers, secured a position primarily due to his prior employment at Grameen Telecom, founded by Dr. Yunus. Ashiq himself has acknowledged Yunus’s direct involvement in his appointment. This has sparked debates about possible favoritism and the monopolization of state appointments by Yunus’s associates and affiliated NGO networks, raising further questions about fairness and the effective elimination of quota systems in public sector recruitments.
Given the delicate nature of the current situation, observers anticipate that the digital platforms presently supporting Yunus could quickly reverse their stance and adopt a more critical tone if the anticipated economic backing does not materialize as promised. Such a shift could significantly alter public perception, intensifying scrutiny of Yunus’s policies and actions, and potentially undermining his administration's credibility and stability. This possible change underscores how digital narratives remain closely tied to tangible economic outcomes, suggesting that continued online support hinges critically on fulfilling economic expectations.
Further compounding Bangladesh's governance challenges is the frequent misallocation of intellectual talent due to flawed political leadership decisions. Yunus's cabinet, composed of notably qualified individuals, underscores the existence of substantial untapped talent within Bangladesh and its diaspora. Yet, political party policy-making positions are often occupied by figures lauded as "street fighters," valued for their grassroots mobilization and political activism.
While these street fighters indeed hold significant value in maintaining party morale and activism, policy formulation demands a different skill set, focusing on expertise, analytical thinking, and strategic planning. Hence, political parties must urgently reassess their appointment criteria, allocating responsibilities based on relevant competencies rather than mere activism credentials. Assigning individuals to roles commensurate with their abilities is critical for sustainable national development.
The current discourse surrounding Muhammad Yunus's leadership and Bangladesh's political landscape calls for careful reconsideration. Recognizing the nuances of charismatic leadership and effectively leveraging domestic intellectual resources can help circumvent potential crises and ensure meaningful progress. Muhammad Yunus's leadership and Bangladesh's political landscape necessitates deeper introspection regarding democratic practices and international trade dynamics. Effective governance, built on transparent and merit-based selections, and sustained legitimacy through elected institutions are essential for long-term stability, economic prosperity, and international credibility. Recognizing and addressing these critical factors can help Bangladesh avoid potential crises, strengthen democratic institutions, ensure robust economic growth, and solidify its position in the global arena.
About the Author:
Md Hossain Al Rashed Badol is a pre-doctoral student in International Trade and Business Law at the University of Arizona, USA, and a Research Assistant for the Ecological Rights Project at the James E. Rogers College of Law, University of Arizona, USA. He can be reached at rashedbadol@arizona.edu
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect The Insighta's editorial stance. However, any errors in the stated facts or figures may be corrected if supported by verifiable evidence. | A guest post by
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