Interests behind India’s Hegemonic Agenda in Bangladesh
History shows that India consistently sides with authoritarian rulers in the South Asian region. But how much does India actually gain from this “big brother” strategy?
প্রতিবেশি রাষ্ট্রগুলোতে ভারত প্রায়ই বিভিন্নভাবে প্রভাব বিস্তারের চেষ্টা করে। ইতিহাস বলে, এই প্রচেষ্টার অংশ হিসেবে ভারত প্রতিনিয়ত দেশগুলোর স্বৈরশাসকদের পক্ষ নেয়। কিন্ত, এই “বড়ভাই সুলভ” কৌশল থেক ভারতের লাভ কতটুকু?
An analysis of India's foreign policy and its relations with neighboring countries over the years reveals a consistent strategy of maintaining dominance by supporting specific political parties to be in power, even through undemocratic means as a regional hegemon. In line with this strategy, India has provided substantial domestic and international backing to Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, overriding the democratic aspirations of the Bangladeshi people. As a result, Bangladesh has endured a fascist regime for over 15 years.
Bangladesh, a 53-year-old nation with a rich history of struggle for language, democracy, and independence, stands as a dynamic and strategically significant country in the south Asia region and beyond. Despite its potential to inspire democratic spirits globally, the nation has experienced a concerning regression from its democratic path, particularly over the past 15 years. Former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her party Bangladesh Awami League, both overthrown by the July 2024 uprising, assumed office in the controversial election of 2008. Since then, the nation has continued to descend into fascism. Fascist Sheikh Hasina and Awami League cohorts systematically abused state machinery and resources to establish a regime that persistently violated human rights and eroded democratic principles. The elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 are the most notable examples of this degradation of democracy, as voters’ basic right to vote was persistently denied. Unfortunately, India, Bangladesh's largest and closest neighbor, played a pivotal role in the continued fascism by providing the Awami League with unwavering support on local, regional, and international fronts, enabling the regime to suppress citizens’ fundamental rights and maintain its grip on power.
In his book, The Coalition Years: 1996 to 2012, former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee reveals India's involvement in securing the Awami League's 2008 election victory. In the 2014 election, India influenced smaller parties like the Jatiya Party to participate, while major opposition parties boycotted, citing an uneven playing field. The 2018 "midnight election" was rejected by opposition parties due to irregularities, including ballot stuffing at night before the election day. In the 2024 elections, the “dummy” election, the Hasina regime supported “dummy” independent candidates, who were also from the Awami League, to make the election appear credible, leading the international community to label the election as flawed. Despite these issues, India consistently backed the legitimacy of the elections held from 2008 to 2024, bolstering the Awami League’s grip on power. Besides, India played a significant role in softening international criticism of Sheikh Hasina’s repressive regime until her escape to India on August 5, 2024. Reports indicate Delhi also pressured Washington to ease its firm stance on Hasina’s government.
Besides politics, under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's foreign policy increasingly fell under India’s regulatory influence, shaping diplomatic and commercial decisions of Bangladesh. A notable example is her 2024 state visit to China, where discussions centered on the Teesta project—a river shared with India, which has unilaterally exploited the river, depriving Bangladesh of fair water rights. China expressed interest in financing the project, even conducting feasibility studies, but India opposed China’s involvement under the guise of security concerns. Before visiting China, Hasina traveled to India twice and ultimately handed the project to India, despite India’s lack of feasibility studies and the capacity to execute the project effectively. Experts argue this decision was driven by India’s aim to prevent closer Bangladesh-China ties. During her China visit, Hasina faced a lack of expected protocol and economic support, leading her to cut the trip short and return to Bangladesh.
Despite being neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh had experienced a strained relationship for the past 15 years. Many in Bangladesh believe that, due to Pakistan's strained ties with India and under India's pressure, Bangladesh, under Hasina’s rule, had been unable to establish a mutually respectful relationship with Pakistan. Even after Sheikh Hasina's escape to India, when a Pakistani cargo ship arrived in Bangladesh with consumer goods, India expressed concern.
Moreover, India has strategically and profitably used Bangladesh's territory for connectivity with its seven northeastern states (the Seven Sisters). However, when Bangladesh sought to establish road links with neighboring countries like Nepal and Bhutan, India did not respond positively to using its territory for these connections.
These events clearly demonstrate how India has confined Bangladesh's politics and independent foreign policy.
Even after the fall of Sheikh Hasina following the people’s uprising, there has been no visible shift in India’s perspective on Bangladesh that developed during her tenure. The UN Human Rights Commission has found Sheikh Hasina’s direct involvement in the mass killings during the July uprising. However, Hasina still finds refuge in India. Not only that, but also she continues to use phones and social media platforms from India to direct her party members to carry out killings and other forms of repression against students and protesters involved in the July uprising.
The Bangladesh government has formally requested India to stop Hasina from using its territory for conspiracies against Bangladesh. Unfortunately, India has taken no visible effective action in response. Indian media outlets spread misinformation about the Bangladesh government, and India still views the overthrow of Hasina’s regime as a conspiracy, even some Indian leaders issuing threats to annex Bangladesh. After crippling Bangladesh’s democracy, human rights, social system, and global respectful positions, Hasina fled to India. Hasina’s escape to India presents a new opportunity for Bangladesh to restore its democracy, rebuild a fair social system, and foster respectful diplomatic relationships with the global community.
Bangladesh has recently signed an important agreement with the U.S.-based company, Argent LNG, as part of its effort to expand international business ties. In this context, Bangladesh continues to work on strengthening its ties with both neighboring and distant countries.
Moreover, whenever Bangladesh endeavors to strengthen its business ties with China and Pakistan, India lodges complaints with the United States and Western nations, alleging that Bangladesh is tilting toward China and claiming that the interim government is backed by ‘Islamist fundamentalists.’ Given India’s systematic interference in Bangladesh's politics, cultures, economy, and foreign policy spheres, it seems likely that India has a meticulous plan to treat Bangladesh similarly to how it has been treating the people of Kashmir by controlling their cultural, political, human rights, and economic freedoms.
Under these circumstances, India appears to seek control over Bangladesh to achieve two main objectives: first, to reap economic benefits since Bangladesh, with a population of nearly 200 million, is a huge market with significant potential to grow politically and economically, and second, to prevent Bangladesh from emerging as a development model that could further stir ongoing independence movements in India since people in India’s various states aspire for independence.
About the Author:
Md Farid Talukder, PhD is an Assistant Professor of Management at McNeese State University, Louisiana, USA. Dr. Talukder is a chairman of South Asia Initiative—a US-based think tank works on south Asian politics and policy. He is distinguished academic, researcher, and scholar in specializing in international business, south Asian affairs, and geopolitics. He can be reached at talukderuniversity@gmail.com
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect The Insighta's editorial stance. However, any errors in the stated facts or figures may be corrected if supported by verifiable evidence.
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